Archive for the ‘Fraud’ tag
Polls, Schmolls
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After offering my take on the first presidential debate, it was interesting to see most of those presenting opposing comments based their responses on the results of polls conducted after the debate, particularly one by CNN (not “Perception Impression” gadget, but actual polls.)
I do not mean to change anyone’s opinion at this point. It is clear that in regards to that debate and perhaps others to follow, if you’re an Obama supporter, your guy won. If you’re a McCain supporter, your guy won. As Iranians, have always been politically stubborn and perhaps we are stubborn Iranian-Americans now.
However, the nature of polling is still at question and for those who do not question it, often citing some magical “scientific” reason behind the numbers, just ask yourself one question; if the polls were such a science, why would campaigns conduct their own separate, rigorous, frequent and very expensive polling instead of just looking at the CNN results?
The answer has much to do with the same “science” behind the polls, for as everything so scientific also leaves an opening to be scientifically manipulated, and it often is. And the reason I turned off my television right after the debate to write my opinion was to not hear those polls as well as the spin-masters’ version of what took place.
There are many ways to manipulate the outcome of a poll. The most common are of course;
- What questions were asked? In one of the campaigns I worked for, we got two separate results when asking whom “do you feel WON the debate” versus “do you feel CAME ON TOP at the debate”. The difference was close to a huge10-point margin when all else was equal and nobody could explain why. To this date I can’t understand why people responded so differently to essentially the same question.
- In what order were the questions asked? It is known that you can “lead” a subject by just choosing the order you ask the questions. If you get 4 positive answers in a row, the 5th is most likely a positive also, for example. Or if you set up the interviews so your most crucial question (D) is always asked before (E), (G) and (Z) to get the result you want.
- How random were the people interviewed? Again from my personal experience, I’ve seen media choose random phone-in interviews to conduct a very critical poll. What they didn’t take into account was that according to latest stats, 58% of renters in California don’t have landlines anymore and this was a poll that directly affected renters on a proposition initiative in CA. Needless to say, they had a list that excluded cell numbers, leaving the most important folks out of their poll. They were calling areas that had high renters, but mostly talking to their landlords that had 2-6 units for rent in, living in the same complex!
I am not suggesting CNN wanted to manipulate the results (although it would be naive to suggest any media is without a bias these days) or they are close-minded to such issues. But they are a news organization, filling their time and I am not going to let them tell me what I think. Poll or no poll, from what I watched, Obama lost round one. Sorry if he’s your candidate and hope he prepares better for round two.
This post deals with traditional and accepted methods of polling and not what is used at most focus groups today with a small sample of people and a gadgets to indicate based their immediate responses.
Zoltar Speaks!
My grandmother had a sort of her own spiritual advisor. It was a nomadic woman in her mid twenties that would stop by once a months or so to remove spells, get rid of a Jinn (Genie) or two that permanently lived in their basement it seemed, and finally write some prayers that my aunt in particular needed to wear around her neck until her next visit.
I never liked her and could copy a couple of her acts even better than she performed them but confronting her with all her tools was hard, particularly after she made a Jinn speak one day and even put imprints of her hoofs on a plate of soft flour as a form of a signature to promise to leave the family alone.
After her, my exposure with people of “celestial” powers has been limited to the Bahama Mama (her words) who tried to lift my wallet while performing her magic, the Toronto “Gypsy” (her word again) who made me leave upon seeing my palms and declaring my “evil” and “probably anti-Christ” and finally one last example that I will leave out as it involves the pubic area and not that fun to read.
But last week I’m in San Fernando Valley (I know, I got to stop going there) for an appointment and as soon as I get out of my car, somebody calls me from behind. I turn and this Sikh man about my own age in a light blue turban is rushing towards me. I am not sure if he was speaking to me in Hindi or his English accent was so thick I really didn’t understand what he was saying. When he got to me, he started with “you are a very lucky man”, pointing to a small mole on my forehead that presumably acts as a third-eye.
I thanked him and asked what I could do for him, thinking his car has broken down or needs to use a cell phone or any of other thousands of reasons we could need one another as human beings.
That’s when he crumbles a tiny piece of paper and puts it in my palm and while writing on another small yellow square piece of paper, starts to dissect my life, or at least my future:
• I am one lucky man (general.)
• 8/26/2008 will be a lucky day for me.
• Two garlic every morning (not clear as to cloves or whole pieces) good for my health.
• I have two children. You have none? Then you WILL have two.
• His prediction; my favorite color is blue and my favorite number between 6,7 or 8 is 7! I picked blue and 8 but he quickly scratched 8 and made my second choice 7!
No wishes granted, unlike Zoltar, the wish granting fortuneteller of Big.
Finally and after about 7-10 minutes of this, the main pitch comes. He opens the brown hand-made but inexpensive small folder he has been using all this time to write on to show me two of his pictures while sitting in a temple. “My name is Baba ___” (I can’t remember it) “and people help me with 100, 150” (never mentioning ‘dollars’) and closing with “what can you help me with today?”
With that, the back and forth volley of demands and excuses between us starts. I start with “got no cash on me” but he points to my hand “you have your checkbook”, ouch, a good shot but I’m not done. “I’m going to an appointment and that’s for them” forces him to back down and go back to a cash position: “what can you help me with right NOW?” I need to go for broke, besides I’m being late: “Right now? Nothing. If you’re still here after I get back in 20 minutes, I’ll help you with $5” He is disarmed but tries one last time “Okay, help me with $5 right now!” and I question his honesty next: “Why? Are you taking off and will not be here in 20 minutes?” He’s defeated. All he can do is threaten now: “I’ll see you in 20 minutes then!”
As I turn and within 20 feet, I see an older partner of my “Zoltar” with a similar handbag offering advice and seeking “help”. Seems like helping is a group sport.
Meanwhile, all I am thinking is that I wish they indeed had the ability to foresee the future. They would then know that my appointment is for two hours and I’m planning to get some food afterward.
In my head I say goodbye to them; “See you in 4 hours Zoltars!”
