Archive for the ‘USA’ Category
Polls, Schmolls
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After offering my take on the first presidential debate, it was interesting to see most of those presenting opposing comments based their responses on the results of polls conducted after the debate, particularly one by CNN (not “Perception Impression” gadget, but actual polls.)
I do not mean to change anyone’s opinion at this point. It is clear that in regards to that debate and perhaps others to follow, if you’re an Obama supporter, your guy won. If you’re a McCain supporter, your guy won. As Iranians, have always been politically stubborn and perhaps we are stubborn Iranian-Americans now.
However, the nature of polling is still at question and for those who do not question it, often citing some magical “scientific” reason behind the numbers, just ask yourself one question; if the polls were such a science, why would campaigns conduct their own separate, rigorous, frequent and very expensive polling instead of just looking at the CNN results?
The answer has much to do with the same “science” behind the polls, for as everything so scientific also leaves an opening to be scientifically manipulated, and it often is. And the reason I turned off my television right after the debate to write my opinion was to not hear those polls as well as the spin-masters’ version of what took place.
There are many ways to manipulate the outcome of a poll. The most common are of course;
- What questions were asked? In one of the campaigns I worked for, we got two separate results when asking whom “do you feel WON the debate” versus “do you feel CAME ON TOP at the debate”. The difference was close to a huge10-point margin when all else was equal and nobody could explain why. To this date I can’t understand why people responded so differently to essentially the same question.
- In what order were the questions asked? It is known that you can “lead” a subject by just choosing the order you ask the questions. If you get 4 positive answers in a row, the 5th is most likely a positive also, for example. Or if you set up the interviews so your most crucial question (D) is always asked before (E), (G) and (Z) to get the result you want.
- How random were the people interviewed? Again from my personal experience, I’ve seen media choose random phone-in interviews to conduct a very critical poll. What they didn’t take into account was that according to latest stats, 58% of renters in California don’t have landlines anymore and this was a poll that directly affected renters on a proposition initiative in CA. Needless to say, they had a list that excluded cell numbers, leaving the most important folks out of their poll. They were calling areas that had high renters, but mostly talking to their landlords that had 2-6 units for rent in, living in the same complex!
I am not suggesting CNN wanted to manipulate the results (although it would be naive to suggest any media is without a bias these days) or they are close-minded to such issues. But they are a news organization, filling their time and I am not going to let them tell me what I think. Poll or no poll, from what I watched, Obama lost round one. Sorry if he’s your candidate and hope he prepares better for round two.
This post deals with traditional and accepted methods of polling and not what is used at most focus groups today with a small sample of people and a gadgets to indicate based their immediate responses.
McCain 1 – Obama 0
Greg Craig - Barack Obama's Policy Advisor
Greg Craig would need to do MUCH better if his candidate wants any chance of winning upcoming debates. He has played the lead role in preparing Obama for his debates and even posed as McCain while they practiced.
Obama performed so poorly against a much weaker candidate, I feel obliged to offer a few points as a one time aspiring politician with some media training for such occasions:
- Get your candidate in a jacket that is at least half a size too big for him. His thin, long stature could use the puffing up. Navy suits look Presidential.
- Avoid a tie with small print. Light blue or red only and find someone in the campaign that can tie a perfectly straight and long half or full Windsor necktie.
- When your opponent is deliberately avoiding looking at you, do not look at him as it comes across like you are begging to have a confrontation and he doesn’t see you as a worthy adversary.
- If your opponent is successful at smiling confidently while you make your best points, return the favor and smile while he’s making his.
- Stop enforcing what you have in common; unless you are so much better, he has a longer record and better credentials.
- Take your shots while he lobs all those softballs (and gaffs) at you immediately and not a minute later when you remembered the right answer. He’s 72; you can’t afford to look 82!
- Take that cane out of your ass and relax, be mildly animated and exude confidence.
Better luck next time!
“Less Taxes, More War”
Tough yet very very soft
With hundreds of thousands of active blogs out there, who needs another one that focuses on all the doom and gloom of daily life?
Who cares if we give our money to banks to hold, they occasionally lend it back to us at outrageous interest rates, pay mind-blowing salaries out of it to their executives and dividends to their largest share-holders. Then when we need it back they say “oops, it looks like we may not have it anymore…could you bail us out with your tax money and basically just pay yourselves?”
Who cares if one candidate holds three separate news conferences in a day to put out three very different messages about the economy as the market plunges further while the other refuses to carry the “change” flag by pointing out the real reasons behind the collapse?
Who cares if an Israeli cabinet minister thinks kidnapping another country’s president is a good idea and an Iranian one keeps coming up with fake degrees to keep his job?
Not this blog! At least not at this very moment, before I change my mind! It’s time for only good news. We’re talking good words, thoughts and deeds. Things like; “sanctuary”, “quality time”, “extra fibers” and “softness.”
Aren’t those nice things? Well, that’s what the “toilet-paper researchers” have developed for us and it will be available as of Monday.
Yes, these may be tough times on many fronts. But at least for “women 45 and older”, there will be something soft available not only for its intended uses, but perhaps for other times also, such as crying when you open your next 401(K) statement.