© the eyeranian: Iran, the new old enemy?

August 02, 2004

Iran, the new old enemy?

I woke up on July 28th and did something I have not done in a long time; I checked my web log's counter for the number of visitors that day and it read 179. At first I was not sure how to react. A few months ago (maybe last time I checked) that number would have been in thousands but then again I haven't really written much in weeks.

I decided there were two ways to react; either get negative and mourn that a whole bunch of people got tired of coming back to a similar page until they stopped checking OR think of it this way; you haven't written anything of substance for a long time and yet still a bunch of loyal people come back to check your blog. I chose to feel the second way and that's why I even announced that I wrote something that day.

What I wrote was a response to an article in Sunday's LA Times. Something put out by Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and picked up by a bunch of papers in actuality, including LA Times. Here is the piece by Walter Russell Mead. Read it first, then you may wish to read my reply below. This was sent to the paper, but I doubt they'd ever publish it:

========================================

It is a shame to see the same hawkish mentality that pushed us into an illegal and immoral war in Iraq has increased its intensity in preparation for yet another horrible mistake, this time preparing the groundwork for a possible military confrontation with Iran.

Walter Russell Mead’s piece in Sunday’s LA Times (A Darker Shadow than Iraq) is just another example of the types of articles appearing in media over the last few weeks that should worry those who can see the parallels between now and how the public opinion was molded on Iraq about two years ago.

In fact, similarities between the cases made against Iran now and Iraq then are plenty and far from just alphabetical. Not only they are similar in the tone and even charges levied, but also identical methodology of fear and stating false premises as facts are used. Perhaps not surprisingly though, is that again most of these latest attacks, including this particular article, come from The Council on Foreign Relations. The same outfit who provided most of the intellectual rationale behind invasion of Iraq and anything else the “New World Order” crowd sees as their necessary next step.

Let me clear one point from the start, as a former political prisoner of the Islamic Republic, there is no stronger desire in me but to see the current regime in Iran replaced with a democratic and peaceful alternative. I have lost no less than 36 of my close friends, classmates and relatives to the brutality of this current system, many of them executed as teenagers. So, do not expect to find a hard-core defender of that system here, but even the most brutal dictators should be dealt with fairly and the method to replace them is critical to what they will be replaced with. The mess we have created in Iraq should provide enough evidence on that fact.

The fear factor in this article starts with a myth perpetuated a few years ago by one Israeli tabloid. It is a quote often used cleverly and never in its entirety to show the supposed intentions of Iran to go after “nuclear destruction of Israel”. It came from a 2001 sermon by one-time President of Iran Rafsanjani. Again, I feel it necessary to point out that if one day Rafsanjani is brought to an international court to answer for his crimes against humanity, you’ll find me in the long line of claimants as I have experienced his sadism and brutality first hand. But again, even he deserves to be judged on what he has actually said or done and not something imagined by a third-rate newspaper.

Mead repeats the allegations of that tabloid paper in his article as facts. Here’s how he puts it: “Moreover, Iran's statements about the nuclear weapons it hopes to build are far from reassuring. In December 2001, former Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani said the "application of an atom bomb would not leave anything in Israel" but would produce only "damages" in the Muslim world. After the nuclear destruction of Israel, Rafsanjani said, "Jews shall expect to once again be scattered and wandering around the globe."

Unfortunately the full text of Rafsanjani’s speech is not available to confirm or deny this without any suspicion. Friday sermons are rather long and as such they are usually abbreviated by most newspapers and are published the next day. However, more than one source has searched for what was actually said on that day and here is the quote closest to the tabloid’s allegation reported by Michael Rubin of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, hardly an anti-Israeli outfit: "If one day, the Islamic world is also equipped with weapons like those that Israel possesses now, then the imperialists' strategy will reach a standstill because the use of even one nuclear bomb inside Israel will destroy everything."

The most detailed account comes from The Middle-East Media Research Institute (MEMRI). They highlighted various parts of that entire speech and here is their version of what was said about Israel and nuclear weapons: “Rafsanjani said that Muslims must surround colonialism and force them [the colonialists] to see whether Israel is beneficial to them or not. If one day, he said, the world of Islam comes to possess the weapons currently in Israel's possession [meaning nuclear weapons] - on that day this method of global arrogance would come to a dead end. This, he said, is because the use of a nuclear bomb in Israel will leave nothing on the ground, whereas it will only damage the world of Islam.”

Again, the facts seem a lot different than what is presented, particularly nothing about Jews wondering the globe and certainly nothing about the bomb Iran is presumably “hoping to build”.

But I’ll play the devil’s advocate here for a second and just pretend for a moment that Iran is somehow successful in building that one bomb they have apparently been so desperate to make. What will happen next?

Dropping a bomb on Israel is an impossible scenario, even if they have been successful in building and using a delivery method that is tested and accurate. The land occupied by Israel is not an area void of anyone but Zionists. A nuclear bomb destroys everything in its path, regardless of its genetic or cultural makeup. Detonation of a nuclear device over Tel-Aviv or even Jerusalem will annihilate millions of Muslims, Christians and others, not to mention destroy some of Islam’s holiest places and shrines. How could a government fighting for glory of Islam could justify that to the world’s Muslims?

That is even if this was a remote possibility, for everyone knows that the nuclear rocket leaving Iranian skies for Israel will not even be near its landing before every single Iranian city and even small village is destroyed under a barrage of nukes coming back from Israel and U.S. bases in the region, the naval carriers and subs, long range rockets from Europe and far east, and cross-continent arsenal within the United States territory. Rafsanjani and company may be brutal against their opponents, but even they love their children and grandkids too.

If you are surrounded in your house by a military many times your owns’ strength and have only one, maybe two bullets to fight with, it will be suicide to take that first shot. More unequivocally, if you’ll be guaranteed to take out a number of your own sympathizers with that first shot as well.

So, it would not be in Iran’s current regime’s interest, (or “Mullahs” as Mead calls them, although he must be aware that most of their decision-making infrastructure is made up of non-Mullah/Clergy people and besides judging anyone based on their outfit alone could not possibly be fair, as there are good and bad within each clergy or other professional group, but I know it helps to de-humanize the enemy and stereo-type it by attaching a simple label) to attack Israel by their supposed nuclear weapon.

The reason Mead, Michael Ledeen, Richard Armitage and Richard Perle are so eager to inflate the danger of Iran’s nukes is clear; things are going bad in all other fronts and a new bogyman is needed real soon to divert attention to. Besides, the old friends of key figures in this administration on the other side (remember October Surprise or Iran-Contra?) also need the danger of this big bad enemy at their doorsteps to crush their own democratic opposition. Both sides supposedly win if Cheneys and Rafsanjanis of the world are given more of a chance to line their pockets further.

Iran is a country in perpetual motion towards freedom and democracy, despite occasional set-backs. Three major revolutions in one century are proof of Iranian people’s desire to reach their ultimate goal on their own terms and by their own means. Amazingly, most of their efforts have faced interference by outside governments that eventually have led to defeat of their movements. As once again Iran starts its deliberate momentum towards yet another attempt at freedom, it is the same unwanted interference that is endangering the progress.

If Mead and company want a truly free and democratic Iran, they’d leave it up to Iranians to build that eventuality for themselves and on their terms.

For a true “Darker Shadow” though, we may want to look at our close relationships with other regional dictators, from Military Coup Musharraf with actual nukes on hand and many ties with Taliban under his command, to Saudi Princes and Persian Gulf Sheiks who are the current close allies, enjoying our support and backing in adding to their strength and hold on power until their date of use expires and our soldiers will be asked to pay with their lives to remove them.

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The Rafsanjani part is from an earlier eyeranian post.

Posted by Pedram at August 2, 2004 11:39 PM

Comments

The threat of the nuclear bomb is not so much in its use but that its possession in the hands of Iran would give IT a strong deterrent in the face of belligerent policies of the present powers in the region. Talk of Israel being hit or bombs being transferred to terrorists is just hype to fuel the public imagination.

Actually, the policymakers are not even happy with what the NPT allows. Knowledge and capacity to enrich uranium is not barred under NPT but it puts Iran in a strategically comfortable position to jump to nuclear weapons state status if the international political situation dictates.

Ironically, it was the example of U.S. allies like Israel and Pakistan that showed the world the value of nuclear weapons as political and military deterrents and the value of working outside the realm of international cooperation. Iran IS still working cooperatively within the IAEA framework.

Posted by: Brad at August 3, 2004 06:24 AM

Dear Pedram-

Interesting article with some new perspectives. Thank you for sharing it with us.

I think it will be Iranians who ultimately change the course of the Muslim world. There seems to be widespread dissatisfaction among ordinary Iranians with the ruling faction in Iran, and the mullahs. Sometime in the next 20 years or so, hopefully sooner, the Iranian people will have a secular democratic country. That is more likely to be the role model for the middle east, rather than what results in Iraq from the present faith-based foreign policy of the US.

It's heartbreaking to think of the Iranian people being subjected to a succession of tyrannies and invasions, the monarchies, the short-lived interregnum of Mussadegh, who was forced from office in August 1953 largely due to covert U.S. activity. Then the autocracy of the Shah, followed by the autocracy of the Islamic Republic. Think of the Russian people, first the Czars, then the Communists, and now the gangsters. Where will it end?

You better believe that if an atomic weapon is deployed against Israel or the United States, the missiles will start flying. I think it is more likely that some non-state group will acquire and use a nuclear weapon rather than a state. There is an awful lot of nuclear ordinance out there, which was sold, stolen or disappeared after the break-up of the Soviet Union. Also, the North Koreans and Pakistanis have been marketing their nuclear weapons systems to other countries, and maybe individuals? It is likely some jihadi group has such a weapon.

I pray that people of good will will come to the fore, and that somehow humanity will survive. It is not impossible, as the restraint of the USA and Soviet Union during the cold war demonstrates. Unfortunately, there are a lot of nut case leaders out there, who's agendas are more radical than their populaces as a whole. Multi-party democratic governments, pluralism and accountability are really the only long-term way of moderating the influence of the nut cases.

Posted by: Lance Culpepper at August 3, 2004 11:26 AM

I think Iranian government has reached to an understanding that there is no way to prove the innocence. Even if they allow the whole country to be opened to investigators, it won't be convincing enough for the US that they don't want to build the damn thing as it was the case in Iraq. So they have probably decided to go ahead with it.

The real solution to Iran's Nuclear problem is that the US provide the Iranian government with a definite way on how to prove it does not intend to built nukes as well as full guarantee that it is not going to invade Iran.

I believe Iranians should work both to prevent invasion of Iran as well as discourage Iranian government from acquiring nukes. Iranian government with nukes might feel more confident and would increase the suppression of dissent inside Iran. This in mind, I believe Iranians in the US better support a limited rapproachment of the US and Iran inorder to resolve this issue.

Posted by: mehdi at August 3, 2004 04:33 PM

'Iran's Nuclear problem' only exist in the minds of those who have bought into the U.S. foreign policy. As Pedram makes clear, there are bigger concerns out there and having nuclear capability will not cause major changes in Iran or the rest of that region.

Posted by: Jerry in Jersey at August 3, 2004 05:20 PM

I think the chances of the USA invading Iran is zero. Even if they wanted to, which I don't think they do, they don't have the manpower. The US army in Iraq is running on empty as it is. How could they possibly hope to control another country with a much larger population. They can't. I think they have figured out that the populace won't welcome them with "open arms." At least, I hope they have. Most Iranian people do not like the mullahs and the present government, but most would not welcome a foreign invader occupying their country.

Posted by: Pieal Amode at August 3, 2004 06:17 PM

Well written and argued Pedram, Bravo.

I'm not sure about the zero chance of invasion thing. Invasion can take many forms. Recall that Korea and Vietnam were invasions that ended up in disappointments for the Americans. This, however, empowered secret, covert activities and proxy wars. Cheaper, more secretive and without much oversight, indirect methods became the thing to do right up until Clinton.

If direct war is not likely, covert coup attempts and proxy war is a very attractive option, now that America's "Intelligence Community" is being supported once again.

A proxy war with some group in Iraq or Afghanistan is the most likely scenario. Any number of groups could be in on this, the Afghan war lords, the MKO, the Kurds, the Turks. Noam Chomsky has written that US is been trying to promote an Azari independence movement for years.

Something like this is perfect because it serves USs PR needs. CIA can start a low level conflict in Azerbaijan and the state department could point to it as "evidence" that the people of Iran are so unhappy, they are resorting to armed struggle. It's a formula that's worked only two well in the past.

Posted by: Qumars Bolourchian at August 3, 2004 09:50 PM

What Is To Be Done?
The clock is ticking. Iran can have its first atomic bomb in a few months and then can negotiate on its own terms.

In a historic speech in summer 1980 in Tehran, Iranian Resistance Leader Massoud Rajavi warned the nation against the growing danger of Islamic fundamentalism fueled and guided by Ayatollah Khomeini and his network of thugs. He asked the question, "What is to be done” to deal with this ogre, about to plunge the entire nation into the darkness of terror and fear.

The antagonism between the democratic movement and Khomeini’s fundamentalist vision peaked in June 1981 when the Revolutionary Guards opened fire on a peaceful demonstration in Tehran and killed many people.

The choice was clear: Either surrender or resistance. Rajavi and his People’s Mujahedeen chose the latter and paid a heavy price.

Now, twenty-three years later, the mullahs in Iran are desperately persuing the atomic bomb. All negotiations to stop them from their clandestine program have failed. Iran’s foreign minister bluntly rejected requests from Germany, France and England to end the nuclear program and insisted that Iran will continue to build centrifuges for enriching uranium.

On another front, the mullahs are trying to erect another Islamic republic, this time in Iraq. In an interview with the Washington Post, Iraq’s defense minister said Iran was Iraq’s main enemy and Secretary of State Colin Powell expressed the United States’ deep concern about Iran’s interference in Iraq.

The mullahs’ confidence in spreading terror around the world is a result of years of appeasement policy pursued by European countries and the US. Instead of holding Iran accountable for its involvement in the deadly bombing attacks in Khobar and Bones Aires, the Clinton administration blacklisted the Mujahedeen in 1997 as a goodwill gesture to Iranian President Mohammad Khatami. The Los Angles Times reported on October 9, 1997, "One senior Clinton administration official said inclusion of the People's Mujahedeen was intended as a goodwill gesture to Tehran and its newly elected moderate president, Mohammad Khatami."

There was never a basis for this accusation. After seven years of appeasement policy with Tehran, The New York Times reported on July 27, 2004, "A 16-month review by the United States has found no basis to charge members of an Iranian opposition group in Iraq with violations of American law, according to senior American officials." However, Iran not only did not cease supporting terrorism, but used the opportunity to develop nuclear weapons.

We are now back again to Rajavi’s question about Iran: What is to be done? The clock is ticking. Iran can have its first atomic bomb in a few months and then can negotiate on its own terms.

Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski offers "appeasement" and "dialogue" towards the Mullahs in Tehran, saying we should be “exploring areas of common interests with Iran, while continuing to contest objectionable policy.” The same policy argues, “Do not pursue a regime change in Iran, but promote democracy within the existing regime.” This policy, already tried unsuccessfully by the European countries, will lead to empowering the mullahs of Iran and quite possibly a nuclear disaster for the world.

The magnitude of uprisings and political arrests in Iran (more than 120,000 executions, and hundreds of thousands of arrests) by the Iranian government, should be a sign for Dr. Brzezinski that Iran is not reforming and the mullahs are not wanted in Iran. As the old Persian saying goes, a viper will never give birth to a dove.

Others argue that the right policy toward Iran is to stand firmly against the mullahs before it is too late.

A policy, already being considered, is to support the movement of Iranian people for democracy and freedom. This policy is supported by distinguished members of Congress such as Senators Sam Brownback (R-KS), Mary Landrieu (D-LA), Jim Talent (R-MO), Evan Bayh (D-IN), Wayne Allard (R-CO), Richard Shelby (R-AL), Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), John Cornyn (R-TX), and Representatives Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), Thomas Tancredo (R-CO), and Brad Sherman (D-CA). A recent Bill drafted by U.S. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA), Chairman of the Senate Republican Conference, introduced legislation "promoting the sense of the Congress that it should be the policy of the United States to support regime change in Iran and that the U.S. government should promote the transition to a new democratic Iranian government."

A similar movement has begun in Iraq as well. More than 500,000 Iraqis supported the continuing presence of the People’s Mujahedeen in Iraq. A new front against Islamic fundamentalism is forming by liberal, intellectual Muslims, who promote a democratic view of Islam and believe in a free and secular society. This unity between two nations to topple Islamic fundamentalism has to be supported.

The first step is to remove the Mujahedeen from the terrorist list. This will encourage and empower the movement of Iranian people for freedom, democracy and secularism. This would give a very clear message to Tehran. A stable and democratic Iran means peace and freedom in the region and a world free of Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism armed by nuclear weapons.

Posted by: Majid at August 4, 2004 06:25 PM

Majid,

Respectfully, you're full of shit.

The MKO has no support whatsoever inside Iran or even with the mainstream Diaspora.

Tell me, Mr. Majid, how do the Rajavi's sleep at night knowing that they participated, attacked and KILLED Iranians both with terrorist bombings and during the War with Iraq?

How can they possibly have any support when they were funded, sheltered and armed by Saddam Hussein, against the people of Iran? They fought side by side with Saddam Hussein's ruthless army killing Iranian teenagers who were there only to defend their country against an aggressor. Worst yet, the MKO's armed attacks were most of the reason that Mullahs could legitimately alarm the people of Iran into continuing the war.

Sure the Revolution had it's flaws, but when we were attacked, we were all Iranian, we all defended Iran against Saddam supported by most of the world. People died defending their nation, and put their own aspirations for democracy on hold --all thanks to the MKO. All Iranians sacrificed in the war. MKO were only too happy to play the role of a puppet for a dictator like Saddam Hussein.

Do these people really call themselves Iranian? I don't care What Masoud Rajavi said in 1980. What he DID '82-'88 speaks volumes about the kind of love he has for Iran and for democracy.

Listening to the House Select Subcommittee on middle east headed by Rep. Ros-Lehtnien of FL, it's obvious your National Council of Resistence has enough money to run an effective Lobby in Washington. I'm sure the fact that she's a Castro-hating cuban so blinded by her anti-communism to help the people of cuba played a big part of it.

When will you realize the MKO is being used by the hawks in Washington to accomplish their own goals? How long will they continue to be puppets in the middle east game? Why else do you think they're keeping the MKO around? It's "peaceful" or "democratic" credentials? Don't make me laugh.

EVEN the leading hawk in the state department, John Bolton admitted you were a terrorist organization. If there is one name on that list that shouldn't be removed it's MKOs.

It's almost over though. When Kerry gets in, he will not tolerate the likes of the MKO. More importantly the people who do (the Neocons) won't have jobs anymore.

-Q

Posted by: Qumars Bolourchian at August 4, 2004 11:18 PM

Majid wrote:

[The Los Angles Times reported on October 9, 1997, "One senior Clinton administration official said inclusion of the People's Mujahedeen was intended as a goodwill gesture to Tehran and its newly elected moderate president, Mohammad Khatami."]

With all due respect to the unnamed official, the Mojahedin had been described as terrorist by the Bush and preceding administrations ever since they were involved in murdering Americans, involved in taking the U.S. embassy in Tehran, attacks and hostage taking in New York city in 1992, to name a few.

[There was never a basis for this accusation. After seven years of appeasement policy with Tehran, The New York Times reported on July 27, 2004, "A 16-month review by the United States has found no basis to charge members of an Iranian opposition group in Iraq with violations of AMERICAN LAW (emphasis mine), according to senior American officials."]

What this statement indicates is that no Mojahedin implicated in crimes in the U.S. or under U.S. jurisdiction were discovered in Iraq. It does not state that henceforth and forever, Mojahedin shall be absolved from prosecution nor does it state that Mojahedin shall be sheltered from prosecution where other legal jurisdictions apply.

It may surprise you but there are no laws on the U.S. books which specifically criminalize being
a terrorist or advocating terrorism.

Posted by: Brad at August 5, 2004 07:14 AM

On the effects of the decision by the Central Command of the Coalition Forces in Iraq with regard to the Mojahedin, you may find this item of interest:

http://www.iran-interlink.org/files/info/SurvivorReport/survivorsreport%200804%204web.pdf

Excerpt:

From today any physical or psychological pressure imposed on these people by the cult leaders would be the direct responsibility of the American Forces as well as the (Department of) Defence of the USA and any mistreatment of individuals by the cult leaders or others in Ashraf Camp can be pursued as the failure of the Americans in carrying out their responsibilities under the Geneva Convention.

Posted by: Brad at August 5, 2004 07:20 AM

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