May 29, 2003

Shark Sightings

Mr. Rafsanjani, the main man behind the scenes at the Islamic Republic of Iran is at it again. After having his close ally Mohsen Rezaei meet with the high ranking U.S. delegation in Greece (and then reportedly in Geneva), he is already creating a replacement figure for Khatami, the "moderate" president. Khatami will not resign as expected by some circles in Iran, but does not have much left of his last term at the helm anyway and this time Rafsanjani is planning another coup.

Reportedly, there are two candidates being prepared so far. First the most obvious, a darling of some intellectual sets, former minister of guidance A. Mohajerani. The other one is a familiar face being brought back into service after a few years of mostly quiet operation. Former MP and one time trail-blazing "moderate" Faezeh Hashemi, Rafsanjani's own daughter may become the first female president of Iran. She is currently in London, where a friend suggests she is in intense English training to prepare her for a more visible international presence.

It seems in both cases, he is going with a person with an even more "moderate" image both in Iran and abroad suggesting he plans to continue ruling with the carrot and stick approach. Basij, Ansar and other tools of oppression will be busy limiting personal and social freedoms, while a new figurehead will attempt to keep the masses at bay with empty promises that will also fool the governments abroad.

Why try to re-invent the wheel if the current situation is working so well for him and his cohorts?

Posted by Pedram at May 29, 2003 09:20 AM
Comments

We are sandwiched from both sides.

Posted by: hooman at May 29, 2003 10:10 AM

Looks like he is trying to look palatable to the US, don't you think? Face it, if the nuclear threat and terror threat are eliminated with the current regime still in place, the US Govt. won't give a damn about the life of the average Iranian.
And your chance to have true reform will have been put on hold, if not flushed down the loo.

Posted by: Dave at May 29, 2003 11:09 AM

Is this Mohsen Rezaei the same as commander of revolutionary guards?

Posted by: Jerry at May 29, 2003 10:30 PM

What are the sources for this report Pedram? I mean, that Faezeh Hashemi is going to run for presidency? Because, if that happens, that is if the Mullahs let her (as a femail) participate that means a lot for the Iranian. I do not give a shit to Faezeh as a person but if the mullahs are ready for such a huge compromise , then this is very good news. If they set back this much then there is great hope for more tangible, useful set backs from the consevative body of the regime. That is the only right path to go: one step at a time.

Posted by: Jafar at May 29, 2003 11:23 PM

Jerry: Mohsen Rezaei is a former commander of the revolutionary gaurd.

Jafar: if it is actually true that Faezeh is going to run for presidency, what you said, is exactly the trap set up in all that. Yes, indeed it would look like a *huge* compromise on the part of the conservatives, but it's only superficial. What will Iran gain with a symbolic female president, while the human rights and freedom of speech are even more fringed? The true steps toward reform are those toward a structure of the government that allows individual freedoms, and more importantly, the effective representation of the will of the majority, not a symbolic change of surface.

Posted by: Babak at May 30, 2003 10:02 AM

1- sorry for the spelling mistakes in previous post: FEMALE and CONSERVATIVE.

2- Babak,
If they think it is only a simple trap with no grave consequences for them they are dead wrong. If you know what the conservative religious establishment in Iran stands for you will realize such compromise is by no means superficial. Even if it is not a big deal by itself, the simple fact that the conservative are so scared and vulnerable now that they are ready to even think about making this compromise is great thing in the long run. Like I said, one small step at a time. Remember what we have in Iran is the clash of social classes (if you pardon my casual use of the term). The regime has not come from the moon. It is reflective of one strong portion of the nation. And to see it is giving up its basic class values under the pressure of the forces of change and modernism, is something. It is not a homogeneous nation fighting an evil regime. It is the society changing and the social classes competing. One small step at a time.

3- I am still curious where Pedram got the news from.

Posted by: jafar at May 30, 2003 01:10 PM

Pedram gets all of his 'news' from friends he has met over the years and are in various positions and locations around the world.

Posted by: Pedram M. at May 30, 2003 02:18 PM

Jafar: I started to answer a few times, but each time it got too long to be suitable for a comment. In brief, I believe the heavier side of this compromise, if it is at all true, is not having a female president, but the social origins of Faezeh Hashemi, which is in the family oligarchy of Hashemis. I leave out my reasons here. What seems more important to me, is a lesson we must have learned from the Khatami experience: if one wants to have the democratic rights in place in Iran fast enough, one should go for the structure of the government. The only other option is to wait for the natural course of human history to make a powerful enough middle class or something of that sort, which will take decades if not centuries.

Posted by: Babak at May 30, 2003 04:37 PM

"if one wants to have the democratic rights in place in Iran fast enough, one should go for the structure of the government."

Agreed. I just happen to believe, to allow a woman run for presidency is a structural reform and will promise more serious reforms. Anyways, so far it is no more a rumer.

Posted by: Jafar at May 30, 2003 07:04 PM

Dear webmasters and members of media

Please link to the flowing petition demanding the release of Ramin Nasseh:

http://www.petitiononline.com/ramin/

Posted by: Mani at May 30, 2003 10:13 PM

Mani - To reach "webmasters and members of media", why don't you write them directly instead of using their comments section to post your message, not related to the topic. That MIGHT work better.

Posted by: Pedram M. at May 31, 2003 06:36 AM